UFC 195

Lawler x Condit - Picks & Predictions

I can’t stand to lose another old new champion


Lawler x Condit
Miocic x Arlovski
Larkin x Tumenov
Brandao x Ortega
Trujillo x Sims
McDonald x Kanehara
Noke x Morono
Duffy x Poirier


Miocic (-190)
Porrier (+130)
Morono (+320)

to win $274


Lawler x Condit

Why do this to myself? I know I’m going to pick Robbie Lawler even though I also know Condit has more ways to win. You know what? I don’t care. I’ll start this year off in the clouds, completely ignoring reality, again. After all, if I don’t pick Lawler, all those prayer beads that I’ve hand-etched and tossed into several active volcanoes around this continent will have gone to waste. In my mind, Robbie charges out of his corner, like the blood-sprayed battle god that he is, and blasts Condit with an uppercut that sends him reeling. In reality, it won’t be that easy. Robbie may be well-rounded but he relies heavily on his masterful striking. Condit, on the other hand, will be able to throw up offense off his back. Too bad for him, though, because Lawler has burrowed deep into my heart.

I don’t know what it is about Condit, but I’ve always found him hard to root for. Even in his WEC days, his demeanor irked me. That’s not fair, obviously, as he’s been at least 50% responsible for some of my favorite fights. I hated to see him injured and I love to see him back...so I can start hating him again. Carlos Condit is to be feared and the layoff is the only thing working against him for this title fight, in my mind. Lawler is tougher but Condit fights smarter and will be happy to take the fight anywhere as it unfolds. If we see Robbie’s back hit the mat, my hopes will scream in terror. That won’t happen though. Robbie is going to have to hang tough, but that’s what he does best. Condit won’t be able to put him away and Robbie will take it on aggression.

Miocic x Arlovski

Along with Lawler, Arlovksi is among the last of the old guard. When they’re gone, you can kiss goodbye to the dick-swinging, hard-hitting, good ol’ days. As in, nobody is training spinning hook kick defense to fight either of them. Arlovski will be meeting the hard-nosed, up-and-coming Stipe Miocic, who has an affinity for beating the breaks off legends. This bout will be Stipe’s first return after absolutely decimating Mark Hunt earlier this year.

This fight will probably be a title eliminator, with the winner facing either Cain/Werdum after their title fight in February. The bummer is that I don’t think that either Miocic or Arlovski has what it takes to hang onto UFC gold. They’re both incredibly entertaining strikers, Arlovski with more power and Miocic with superior technique, but I feel like that’s where the road ends. We’ll see, I guess. Arlovski has a tendency to wall-and-stall in high pressure fights, but I don’t think he’ll be able to stifle Stipe. I don’t think that stops him from trying though, and that’s where I see him losing. Arlovski will either waste time in the clinch and lose a decision or bank on being stronger, fade, and get caught. Pray it plays out in a much for fantastical way.